Republican Surge Shocks California Poll

Republican Steve Hilton surges to the top of California’s 2026 gubernatorial poll, offering a rare shot at breaking two decades of Democrat stranglehold in the Golden State.

Story Highlights

Emerson College poll from February 18, 2026, shows Hilton leading with 17% among 1,000 likely voters, ahead of Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Chad Bianco at 14% each.
Hilton draws 38% of Republicans and 22% of independents, capitalizing on a fragmented Democratic field with no party endorsement.
Incumbent Gavin Newsom’s approval dips to 44%, fueling voter frustration with years of high taxes, crime, and sanctuary state policies.
Nonpartisan top-two primary in June 2026 sets stage for potential GOP advancement, challenging Democrat voter registration edge.
High undecided rate (21-30%) signals volatility, with polling aggregates showing Bianco slightly ahead as of late February.

Emerson Poll Reveals Hilton’s Lead

Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics surveyed 1,000 likely voters for the June 2026 nonpartisan primary. Steve Hilton, conservative commentator and Republican candidate, secured 17% support. Democrat U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco trailed at 14% each. Katie Porter followed at 10%, Tom Steyer at 9%. The poll, released February 18, 2026, underscores Hilton’s appeal amid a crowded field of over 10 candidates. Newsom’s approval stands at 44%, down 3 points since December 2025.

Republican Strength Amid Democrat Chaos

Hilton captured 38% of Republican voters and 22% of independents, strong showings in a state where Democrats hold nearly a 2:1 registration advantage. Bianco, a pro-Trump sheriff, garnered 37% GOP support, advocating deregulation and ending sanctuary laws. Democrats remain split, with Swalwell at 23% of his party base. The February 2026 Democratic convention failed to endorse any candidate, heightening fragmentation. This disarray mirrors voter fatigue with progressive policies on crime, homelessness, and illegal immigration.

Candidates Push Conservative Reforms

Chad Bianco targets sanctuary state policies and business overregulation, resonating in Riverside County. Steve Hilton critiques Democratic one-party rule on Fox News, pledging to restore sanity to state governance. Both Republicans poll competitively, threatening top-two primary spots. Democrats like Swalwell and Porter scramble for consolidation, backed by figures like Adam Schiff. Undecided voters hit 21% in Emerson polling, up to 30% in aggregates, leaving room for conservative momentum as President Trump’s policies gain national traction.

Earlier December 2025 Emerson data showed Hilton and Steyer gaining ground, but recent aggregates through February 24 give Bianco a slim edge at 16.3% over Hilton’s 15.2%. Experts like Spencer Kimball note GOP split and Democrat indecision driving the race.

There's a Clear Frontrunner in California's Governor Race, but It's Not Who You'd Expect https://t.co/i9c9ueIz1r

— James Campbell (@JamesCa14047260) March 11, 2026

Path to Victory Challenges Long Odds

California’s top-two system advances the June primary’s top finishers to November 3, 2026, regardless of party. No Republican has won statewide office in nearly 20 years, last under Arnold Schwarzenegger pre-2011. Hilton’s independent support tests this barrier. Bianco’s base eyes economic deregulation. Short-term, a GOP top-two contender could split Democrat votes. Long-term, Newsom fatigue opens doors for breakthroughs, countering years of fiscal mismanagement and globalist overreach.

Social impacts include Bianco’s immigration stance, economic pitches for deregulation. National eyes turn to California as a bellwether amid Trump’s successful presidency. Sonoma State professor David McCuan highlights Hilton’s crowded-field lead. CalMatters deems November Republican odds slim but primary viable. Volatility persists with no polls post-February 24 and fluid field as of March 9.