Glacial War: Putin’s 30-Year Donbas Plan?

Military analysts at computers in a command center — Photo: Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock

Russia has been advancing in Ukraine at an average pace of just 15 to 70 meters per day — meaning, at that rate, it would take over 30 years to fully control the Donbas region it claims as its core war goal.

Story Snapshot

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found Russia gained only about 50 kilometers of ground over roughly two years of heavy fighting — an average of 70 meters per day.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says a major Russian battlefield victory is “not imminent nor inevitable” as of March 2026.
Putin rejected Ukraine’s offer to negotiate in June 2026 and says he remains committed to his original war goals.
Some defense analysts say Russia is already “winning” by a different measure — it holds 20% of Ukrainian territory, including a land bridge to Crimea.

The Math Behind Russia’s Slow Grind

Since early 2024, Russia has advanced at an average of about 70 meters per day in its biggest pushes, according to a CSIS report titled “Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine.” Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Russia has seized roughly 75,000 square kilometers — about 12% of Ukraine’s total land area. At the current pace, analysts calculate it would take more than 30 years for Russia to fully control the Donbas, the region Putin has set as a minimum requirement for ending the war.

The ISW stated plainly in its March 31, 2026 campaign assessment that “significant Russian battlefield gains, let alone total victory, are not imminent nor inevitable.” Ukrainian counterattacks in February 2026 backed that up. ISW noted those successes “disprove Russian claims” that Ukraine has no choice but to surrender before its position gets worse. In short, the battlefield data does not support the idea that Russia is on the verge of a knockout blow.

Putin Rejects Talks — But the Clock Is Ticking

Despite the slow pace of advance, Putin is not acting like a leader ready to deal. On June 5, 2026, ISW reported that Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to negotiate and “reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to fulfilling its war goals.” Putin continues to insist publicly that Russian victory is inevitable. That message plays well at home, where state media keeps war support high and there is, according to analysts, no sign of political chaos inside Russia’s authoritarian system.

Still, the costs are piling up. Russian-language independent outlets Mediazona and Meduza estimated roughly 352,000 Russian soldiers have died since the war began. Russia has not released its own official count. Meanwhile, multiple expert assessments describe the conflict as a war of attrition — one where Russia makes small gains but pays a steep price for each one. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies says “Russia believes it is winning the war of attrition — and that it can overpower and outlast Ukraine.” That belief, however, rests on assumptions about Western support drying up.

What “Winning” Actually Means Depends on Who You Ask

Here is where the picture gets complicated. Not everyone defines victory the same way. The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) concluded in a two-year strategic assessment that Russia is already “winning the conflict” because it holds its “minimally acceptable outcome” — the Donbas, a land bridge to Crimea, and Crimea itself. By that measure, Russia does not need to conquer all of Ukraine to claim success. It just needs to hold what it has and wait out Western resolve.

ZELENSKYY MEETS EUROPEAN LEADERS IN PARIS TO SEEK MORE UKRAINE AID

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with two dozen European leaders in Paris today, to seek more help for fighting Russia. Ukraine's recent advances in drone technology, and its attacks on Russia's…

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The ISW adds one more important caveat: Russia’s military, though weakened, “remains capable of achieving some form of military victory in Ukraine, particularly if the West cuts material support to Kyiv.” That condition matters enormously. President Trump has said “Putin wants it ended soon” and that a deal is “closer than people realize.” Analysts have pushed back hard on that framing. But if U.S. aid to Ukraine slows or stops, the battlefield math could shift. The war’s outcome may depend less on what happens in the trenches and more on what happens in Washington and Brussels.